The eastern margin of the Variscan belt in Europe comprises plate boundaries between continental blocks and terranes formed during different tectonic events. The crustal structure of that complicated area was studied using the data of the international refraction experiments CELEBRATION 2000 and ALP 2002. The seismic data were acquired along SW–NE oriented refraction and wide-angle reflection profiles CEL10 and ALP04 starting in the Eastern Alps, passing through the Moravo-Silesian zone of the Bohemian Massif and the Fore-Sudetic Monocline, and terminating in the TESZ in Poland. The data were interpreted by seismic tomographic inversion and by 2-D trial-and-error forward modelling of the P waves. Velocity models determine different types of the crust–mantle transition, reflecting variable crustal thickness and delimiting contacts of tectonic units in depth. In the Alpine area, few km thick LVZ with the Vp of 5.1 km s− 1 dipping to the SW and outcropping at the surface represents the Molasse and Helvetic Flysch sediments overthrust by the Northern Calcareous Alps with higher velocities. In the Bohemian Massif, lower velocities in the range of 5.0–5.6 km s− 1 down to a depth of 5 km might represent the SE termination of the Elbe Fault Zone. The Fore-Sudetic Monocline and the TESZ are covered by sediments with the velocities in the range of 3.6–5.5 km s− 1 to the maximum depth of 15 km beneath the Mid-Polish Trough. The Moho in the Eastern Alps is dipping to the SW reaching the depth of 43–45 km. The lower crust at the eastern margin of the Bohemian Massif is characterized by elevated velocities and high Vp gradient, which seems to be a characteristic feature of the Moravo-Silesian. Slightly different properties in the Moravian and Silesian units might be attributed to varying distances of the profile from the Moldanubian Thrust front as well as a different type of contact of the Brunia with the Moldanubian and its northern root sector. The Moho beneath the Fore-Sudetic Monocline is the most pronounced and is interpreted as the first-order discontinuity at a depth of 30 km. 相似文献
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region. 相似文献
The Cu–Co–Ni Texeo mine has been the most important source of Cu in NW Spain since Roman times and now, approximately 40,000 m3 of wastes from mine and metallurgical operations, containing average concentrations of 9,263 mg kg−1 Cu, 1,100 mg kg−1 As, 549 mg kg−1 Co, and 840 mg kg−1 Ni, remain on-site. Since the cessation of the activity, the abandoned works, facilities and waste piles have been posing
a threat to the environment, derived from the release of toxic elements. In order to assess the potential environmental pollution
caused by the mining operations, a sequential sampling strategy was undertaken in wastes, soil, surface and groundwater, and
sediments. First, screening field tools were used to identify hotspots, before defining formal sampling strategies; so, in
the areas where anomalies were detected in a first sampling stage, a second detailed sampling campaign was undertaken. Metal
concentrations in the soils are highly above the local background, reaching up to 9,921 mg kg−1 Cu, 1,373 mg kg−1 As, 685 mg kg−1 Co, and 1,040 mg kg−1 Ni, among others. Copper concentrations downstream of the mine works reach values up to 1,869 μg l−1 and 240 mg kg−1 in surface water and stream sediments, respectively. Computer-based risk assessment for the site gives a carcinogenic risk
associated with the presence of As in surface waters and soils, and a health risk for long exposures; so, trigger levels of
these elements are high enough to warrant further investigation. 相似文献
Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging
of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the
roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3)
have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either
the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of
hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect
and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational
picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric
simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies
with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the
geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system
and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number
of different situations. 相似文献
Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance
of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The
sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km2 year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or
catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This
requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology
(precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from
an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km2) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features
attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability
of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km2 year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule
out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km2 year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter
may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes
allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse
structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence.
Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions
with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial
karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes. 相似文献
The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to
the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic
crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed
sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges
are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this
study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern
part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on
the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain,
the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary
Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into
the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks
the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran
region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and
some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such
data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. 相似文献